The Illusion of Control in Playing the Lottery

In the early days of state-sponsored gambling, states legislated a monopoly; set up a public agency or corporation to run the lottery; started with a modest number of relatively simple games; and progressively added new ones. In recent decades, however, the growth in revenue from traditional lotteries has plateaued, prompting a move into newer forms of gambling like keno and video poker. It has also prompted an intense effort at promotion, particularly through advertising.

While most people who buy tickets do not become compulsive gamblers, there is a strong human impulse to take chances. In an era of inequality and limited social mobility, the promise of instant riches is especially appealing. That is why lottery advertising focuses on the glitz and glamour of big-ticket prizes, as well as evoking a sense of personal achievement that can be gained from winning.

In addition, many people believe that skill can tilt the odds in their favor. A number of studies – including those conducted by Leaf Van Boven, a professor of psychology at CU Boulder – have shown that when playing the lottery, players often experience what is known as the illusion of control. This occurs when a person overestimates the influence of their choices on outcome variables that are fundamentally influenced by chance. Anyone who has ever been just one number off from a win knows this phenomenon. Consequently, many players think that they have the best chance of winning if they pick their own numbers.